Saturday, November 11, 2017

Finals Results

Windsor 13, Woodstock 7 (OT)
Fair Haven 46, Bellows Falls 20
St Johnsbury 33, Hartford 32

Saturday, November 4, 2017

Finals Predictions

All three of the championship games should be great matchups just as the regular season games between these teams were. Bellows Falls fell short to Fair Haven by a score of 35-34 in the regular season, but coming off a surprising win over Burr & Burton in the semifinals, I have to give the edge to the Terriers as they look to repeat as champions. Woodstock and Windsor is a coin flip kind of game to me, but I am going with Woodstock in a nail-biter after Windsor beat them in overtime three weeks ago. This will be the 3rd time in 4 years that St Johnsbury and Hartford meet in the playoffs. In 2014, St Johnsbury blasted Hartford 40-0 in the quarterfinals and last year Hartford defeated St Johnsbury in the state championship by a score of 24-14. St Johnsbury narrowly beat Hartford 22-19 in Week 1 of the regular season and with both teams coming off impressive semifinal wins, it should be a great game. This is another game where I truly have no idea who is going to win, but my gut is telling me that it is finally time for St Johnsbury to break through and win the Division 1 state crown.

Division 1
#1 St Johnsbury 30, #2 Hartford 27

Division 2
#4 Bellows Falls 27, #2 Fair Haven 21

Division 3
#2 Woodstock 20, #1 Windsor 19

Saturday Semifinal Results

St Johnsbury was trailing BFA 9-7 in the 3rd quarter before reeling off 30 unanswered points to run away with a 37-9 victory. The Hilltoppers will put their undefeated record on the line one last time as they face Hartford in a rematch of last year's championship game.

Bellows Falls upset Burr & Burton again in the playoffs as they intercepted a pass at the one-yard line in the final minute to prevent the Bulldogs from having a chance to tie the game. The Terriers 22-16 win advanced them to the championship game where they will face Fair Haven, a team they lost to in a 35-34 thriller just a few weeks ago.

Windsor predictably hammered Springfield by score a score of 36-0. They move on to face Woodstock in what figures to be a great championship matchup.

Division 1
#1 St Johnsbury 37, #4 BFA-St Albans 9

Division 2
#4 Bellows Falls 22, #1 Burr & Burton 16

Division 3
#1 Windsor 36, #5 Springfield 0

Potential Realignment (after 2018 season)

While I feel that the divisions are generally well aligned, their are always going to be teams that will be discussed as potential options for changing divisions. I believe the divisions are "set" through next year, but it is always fun to look ahead. While I do not feel that any of these changes are necessary, they would be the changes I would consider most.

Division 1

The two programs that stick out to me as possible options for moving down are Rice and Brattleboro. Rice was highly successful in Division 2 with 4 state titles in 5 years (2010, 2012-14), before they were moved up to Division 1. Since the move they have only made one playoff appearance and have not won a playoff game. While Rice is able to attract some high quality athletes, having an enrollment of around 400 is a challenge when it comes to remaining competitive against the largest schools in the state. Brattleboro has only made one playoff appearance since 2006 and has no playoff victories since 1973. This year their only wins were against Division 2 foes Mt. Anthony (their rival who just moved down before the season) and Spaulding, a one-win team that they defeated by only one point. 

Division 2

Burr & Burton has made the state championship game the past 3 years and with an enrollment larger than Hartford and Middlebury, they could be a program that could sustain success in Division 1. Otter Valley struggled through a winless season this year in their move back to Division 2. However, some may argue that between their enrollment and 3 straight trips to the Division 3 championship game   (2014-16) that they are right where they should be. 

Division 3

Due to their enrollment, Missisquoi will eventually be considered for moving up a division, but with one win in their first two varsity seasons, now is not the time to make that consideration. Woodstock and Windsor have had the talent to be competitive in Division 2, but their numbers suggest they are right where they should be. 

Friday Night Semifinal Results

The #2 seeds in all three divisions prevailed under the lights on Friday night. Hartford led 37-0 in the final minutes before Mt Mansfield scored a late touchdown to make the final score 37-8. Hartford will look to defend as Division 1 State Champions next week against the winner of the BFA-St Albans and St Johnsbury matchup. Woodstock is returning to the championship for the first time since 2013 after disposing of Mill River by a score of 36-6. Woodstock is expected to face undefeated Windsor in a highly anticipated rematch of their Week 8 game which resulted in a 12-9 overtime victory for Windsor.

Fair Haven and Milton squared off in the only thriller on Friday night. Fair Haven scored the first 19 points of the game and appeared to be in the drivers seat until the Yellow Jackets responded with 22 unanswered points. The Slaters reclaimed their lead before the half and went into the locker room with a 25-22 lead. Fair Haven extended its lead again to 32-22 in the 3rd quarter before Milton responded later in the period to cut the lead to 32-30. The Slaters tacked on another touchdown early in the 4th quarter and held their lead the rest of the way to escape with a 39-30 victory. Fair Haven will be making their first finals appearance since 2014 and will be looking to secure their first state championship since 2011 against either Burr & Burton or Bellows Falls.

Division 1 
#2 Hartford 37, #6 Mt Mansfield 8

Division 2
#2 Fair Haven 39, #3 Milton 30

Division 3
#2 Woodstock 36, #3 Mill River 6

Saturday, October 28, 2017

Semifinals Predictions

The game of the week has to be the rematch between St Johnsbury and BFA-St Albans. BFA had a 28-14 lead on the Hilltoppers in the second half during their last meeting before St Johnsbury reeled off 22 unanswered points to secure the win. St Johnsbury hasn't played in a close game in almost a month so it will be interesting to see how they compete against a team of BFA's caliber who is coming off a big win over Middlebury. I am picking St Johnsbury to continue their unbeaten season, but only with very mild confidence. Hartford and Mt Mansfield could also be a very good game. Though Hartford won 46-29 over the Cougars just 2 weeks ago, they have been inconsistent at times, and with Mt Mansfield coming off a big win over Burlington in the quarterfinals, anything is possible.

In Division 2 we have a rematch of last year's championship game with Bellows Falls traveling to Manchester to face Burr & Burton. Burr & Burton has rolled to a 7-0 record in Division 2 with their closest margin of victory being 14 points. Their next closest divisional matchup was against Bellows Falls in Week 3 when they beat the Terriers 23-6. I expect the Terriers to compete hard, but that the Bulldogs will get their revenge after losing to BF in the finals a year ago. Fair Haven and Milton are both 8-1 and they square off in the other matchup. The Slaters and the Yellow Jackets did not face one another this year, but the Slaters handled their opponents more easily and had a statement win over Bellows Falls that I feel gives them the edge in this game.

In Division 3 I expect Windsor to remain undefeated by easily rolling over Springfield. The Cosmos have had a nice run with 3 straight wins after an 0-5 start, but they are no match for a Windsor team that beat them 53-22 in Week 1. Woodstock ran past Mill River 42-14 in Week 5 and they should do so again. A rematch of Windsor and Woodstock in the championship would be a thrilling way to end the season.

Division 1
#1 St Johnsbury over #4 BFA-St Albans
#2 Hartford over #6 Mt Mansfield

Division 2
#1 Burr & Burton over #4 Bellows Falls
#2 Fair Haven over #3 Milton

Division 3
#1 Windsor over #5 Springfield
#2 Woodstock over #3 Mill River

Quarterfinals Results

A few of my upset picks didn't pan out, but at least I correctly predicted BFA-Fairfax's continued slide in their 18-3 defeat to Springfield. Here are the scores from this week:

Division 1
#1 St Johnsbury 31, #8 CVU 14
#2 Hartford 53, #7 Colchester 13
#6 Mt Mansfield 21, #3 Burlington 15
#4 BFA-St Albans 34, #5 Middlebury 20

Division 2
#1 Burr & Burton 48, #8 North Country
#2 Fair Haven 43, #7 Mt Anthony 7
#3 Milton 42, #6 U-32 26
#4 Bellows Falls 61, #5 Lyndon 21

Division 3
#2 Woodstock 42, #7 MSJ/Poultney 20
#3 Mill River 40, #6 Missisquoi 0
#5 Springfield 18, BFA-Fairfax 3

Consolation Games
Rutland 21, Essex 6
Brattleboro 21, Spaulding 20



Saturday, October 21, 2017

Quarterfinals Predictions

Game of the Week: #5 Middlebury at #4 BFA-St Albans
Honorable Mention: #6 U-32 at #3 Milton, #6 Mt Mansfield at #3 Burlington

Division 1
#1 St Johnsbury over #8 CVU
#2 Hartford over #7 Colchester
#3 Burlington over #6 Mt Mansfield
#5 Middlebury over #4 BFA-St Albans

Division 2
#1 Burr & Burton over #8 North Country
#2 Fair Haven over #7 Mt Anthony
#6 U-32 over #3 Milton
#4 Bellows Falls over #5 Lyndon

Division 3
#1 Windsor - BYE WEEK
#2 Woodstock over #7 MSJ/Poultney
#3 Mill River over #6 Missisquoi
#5 Springfield over #4 BFA-Fairfax

Consolation Games
#12 Essex over #9 Rutland
#10 Rice over #11 South Burlington
#13 Brattleboro over #9 Spaulding
#11 Otter Valley over #10 Mt Abraham

Sunday, October 15, 2017

Playoff Picture

Division 1 Locks
St. Johnsbury (clinched top seed)
Hartford
Burlington
BFA-St. Albans
Middlebury
Mt. Mansfield

In the Mix (2/5 teams will make playoffs)
CVU (plays Middlebury)
Rutland (plays Burlington)
Colchester (plays Brattleboro)
Rice (plays BFA-St. Albans)
South Burlington (plays Mt. Mansfield)

Eliminated
Essex
Brattleboro

Division 2 Locks
Burr & Burton
Fair Haven
Milton
Bellows Falls
Lyndon
U-32
Mt. Anthony

In the Mix
*Only way NC does not earn 8th is if Mt. Abraham beats Fair Haven or if Spaulding wins and NC loses.

North Country (plays Otter Valley)
Mt. Abraham (plays Fair Haven)
Spaulding (plays Milton)

Eliminated
Otter Valley

Division 3
Apparently, everybody makes it, and the top seed earns a bye. The winner of the Woodstock-Windsor game would earn the bye.

Week 7 Review

A couple of big games took place in Division 2 as Fair Haven and Bellows Falls went neck-and-neck before the Slaters held on for a 35-34 victory. Burr & Burton asserted its dominance in Division 2 by dispatching previously unbeaten Milton by a score of 54-6.

In Division 1, Middlebury handed Burlington its first loss of the season with a 19-14 win over the Seahorses. Middlebury's 4-3 record is a bit deceiving given that their losses are against the top 3 teams in the state (St. Johnsbury, Hartford, Burr & Burton) and they were able to show that against Burlington.

In Division 3, a battle of winless teams took place between Springfield and Missisquoi. Springfield narrowly escaped with a 34-28 victory to notch its first, and likely only victory of the season. 

Next week's game of the week has the two undefeated teams in Division 3 squaring off as Windsor will be facing Woodstock for the top seed in the playoffs.

Week 7 Results
BFA-St Albans 24, Colchester 7
Brattleboro 28, Mt Anthony 14
Middlebury 19, Burlington 14
Rutland 35, Essex 6
St Johnsbury 57, CVU 13
Hartford 46, Mt Mansfield 29
Rice 33, South Burlington 13
Fair Haven 35, Bellows Falls 34
Burr & Burton 54, Milton 6
North Country 34, Mt Abraham 6
Lyndon 49, Spaulding 16
Woodstock 21, U-32 6
Mill River 35, Otter Valley 33
Windsor 47, MSJ 14
Springfield 34, Missisquoi 28

Division Standings

Division 1
1) St. Johnsbury (7-0)
2) Burlington (6-1)
3) Hartford (6-1)
4) BFA-St. Albans (5-2)
5) Middlebury (4-3)
6) Mt. Mansfield (4-3)
7) CVU (3-4)
8) Rutland (3-4)
9) S. Burlington (2-5)
10) Colchester (2-5)
11) Rice (2-5)
12) Essex (1-6)
13) Brattleboro (1-6)

Division 2
1) Burr & Burton (6-1)
2) Fair Haven (6-1)
3) Milton (6-1)
4) Bellows Falls (5-2)
5) U-32 (4-3)
6) Lyndon (4-3)
7) Mt. Anthony (3-4)
8) North Country (2-5)
9) Spaulding (1-5)
10) Mt. Abraham (1-6)
11) Otter Valley (0-7)

Division 3
1) Windsor (6-0)
2) Woodstock (6-0)
3) Mill River (5-2)
4) BFA-Fairfax (2-4)
5) MSJ/Poultney (1-5)
6) Springfield (1-5)
7) Missisquoi (0-6)


Week 7 Power Rankings
  1. St Johnsbury (7-0)
  2. Hartford (6-1)
  3. Burr & Burton (6-1)
  4. BFA-St Albans (5-2)
  5. Burlington (6-1)
  6. Middlebury (4-3)
  7. Fair Haven (6-1)
  8. Mt Mansfield (4-3)
  9. Bellows Falls (5-2)
  10. Windsor (6-0)


Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Who Has The Longest Playoff Victory Droughts?

Which rivals have the longest playoff victory drought of any currently operating varsity football  programs in Vermont?

If you were thinking of rivals from Chittenden County, go further south. Rutland County? Warmer, but keep on heading toward Massachusetts. Before you make it to the Commonwealth, you will find the answers to this trivia question in the southwest and southeast corners of the state. The Brattleboro Colonels have failed to win a playoff game since 1973, and the Mt. Anthony Patriots achieved their last playoff victory in 1994.

On a positive note, the last playoff victories for both of these teams resulted in state championships. Mt. Anthony stormed to a 9-0 record in 1994 and capped their season off with a 20-7 win over Brattleboro in the semifinals and a dominating 28-0 performance against Middlebury in the finals. Coincidentally, Brattleboro's last playoff victory was also decided by a score of 28-0 in the state finals, when they defeated BFA-St. Albans in 1973.

Since the Patriots last playoff victory, they have only made the playoffs in four of the last twenty-two seasons. In each playoff game they have lost by at least 20 points. Brattleboro has made the playoffs eight times during the same stretch, including a 9-0 regular season in 2005, only to be upset by MSJ in the playoffs.

So, where are the Patriots and Colonels now, and what is next for them? After dropping down to Division 2 following a winless season in Division 1, the Patriots have found some success as they are currently seeded 6th with a 3-3 record. They are a virtual lock for the 8 team playoffs, though breaking their playoff victory drought will be a tall task given the strength of the teams at the top of the standings. The Colonels, who remain in Division 1, are 0-6 and have been outscored by almost 28 points per game. In their only game outside of Divison 1, they dropped a 52-29 decision to Bellows Falls, a Division 2 team. While Brattleboro has a young team, their struggles make you wonder if their next move will be joining Mt. Anthony in Division 2.

Despite the struggles for both of these teams, their annual matchup for the Elwell Trophy is always a heated affair. Last year, the Colonels destroyed the Patriots by a score of 45-7 behind 230 rushing yards from Cheick Diakite. This year the game returns to Bennington, where the Patriots are favored to reclaim the trophy on Friday night. While both teams are sure to be ready for this game, only time will tell how long it will be before they are ready to break their playoff victory droughts.

VT High School Football Playoff History:
https://www.vpaonline.org/cms/lib/VT08001199/Centricity/Domain/11/TeamsFootball.pdf


Monday, October 9, 2017

Week 7 Picks

Division 1
St. Johnsbury over CVU
Hartford over Mt. Mansfield
Burlington over Middlebury
BFA-St. Albans over Colchester
Rutland over Essex
Rice over S. Burlington

Division 2
Burr & Burton over Milton
Fair Haven over Bellows Falls
Lyndon over Spaulding
North Country over Mt. Abraham

Division 3
Windsor over MSJ
Springfield over Missisquoi

Non-divisional games
Mt. Anthony over Brattleboro
Woodstock over U-32
Mill River over Otter Valley

Saturday, October 7, 2017

Week 6 Review

After losing a close battle last week in Northeast Kingdom with undefeated St. Johnsbury Academy, BFA-St. Albans was on the road again to face the defending champion Hartford Hurricanes. Much like last week's tilt, this marquee matchup did not disappoint. While BFA marched out to an early lead against St. Johnsbury, it found itself down 24-10 at halftime this week. However, much like the Hilltoppers did a week before, BFA rallied and cut the score to 24-23 with about 10 minutes left to play. A missed extra point prevented BFA from tying the game and Hartford was able to hold off the Bobwhites the rest of the way.

In other highlights, Milton overcame a 35-22 second half deficit to defeat Lyndon 46-42 to move to 6-0, and Burr & Burton made a big statement by blasting Middlebury 36-7. Essex amd North Country both pitched shutouts for their first wins of the season as the Hornets blanked Colchester 20-0, and the Falcons topped Spaulding, 38-0.

Next week's Vermont Football Insider's games of the week have us watching the top teams in Division 2 as Milton puts its undefeated record on the line against Burr & Burton, and Bellows Falls squares off against Fair Haven in a matchup of one loss teams.

Results

Division 1
St. Johnsbury 53, Brattleboro 20
Hartford 24, BFA-St. Albans 23
CVU 20, S. Burlington 6
Essex 20, Colchester 0
Rutland 41, Rice 21
Burlington 42, Mt. Mansfield 33

Division 2
Fair Haven 35, U-32 18
Milton 46, Lyndon 42
Mt. Anthony 40, Otter Valley 7
North Country 38, Spaulding 0
Bellows Falls 60, Mt. Abraham 0

Division 3
Windsor 46, BFA-Fairfax 3
Woodstock 57, Missisquoi 30
Mill River 35, Springfield 12

Non-divisional games
Burr & Burton 36, Middlebury 7

Week 6 Power Rankings
1) St. Johnsbury (6-0)
2) Hartford (5-1)
3) Burlington (6-0)
4) Burr & Burton (5-1)
5) BFA-St. Albans (4-2)
6) Mt. Mansfield (4-2)
7) Fair Haven (5-1)
8) Milton (6-0)
9) Bellows Falls (5-1)
10) Windsor (5-0)

Division Standings

Division 1
1) St. Johnsbury (6-0)
2) Burlington (6-0)
3) Hartford (5-1)
4) Mt. Mansfield (4-2)
5) BFA-St. Albans (4-2)
6) Middlebury (3-3)
7) CVU (3-3)
8) Colchester (2-4)
9) S. Burlington (2-4)
10) Rutland (2-4)
11) Rice (1-5)
12) Essex (1-5)
13) Brattleboro (0-6)

Division 2
1) Milton (6-0)
2) Burr & Burton (5-1)
3) Fair Haven (5-1)
4) Bellows Falls (5-1)
5) U-32 (4-2)
6) Mt. Anthony (3-3)
7) Lyndon (3-3)
8) Spaulding (1-4)
9) Mt. Abraham (1-5)
10) North Country (1-5)
11) Otter Valley (0-6)

Division 3
1) Windsor (5-0)
2) Woodstock (5-0)
3) Mill River (4-2)
4) BFA-Fairfax (2-4)
5) MSJ/Poultney (1-4)
6) Springfield (0-5)
7) Missisquoi (0-5)

Saturday, September 30, 2017

Week 5 Review

In the Vermont Football Insider game of the week, BFA-St. Albans traveled across the treacherous terrain of northern Vermont to challenge fellow Division 1 unbeaten, St. Johnsbury Academy. Not only are the Bobwhites and the Hilltoppers two of the top teams in the state, bad blood also exists between them. After their last matchup in 2014 resulted in a 42-9 shellacking by St Johnsbury, BFA proceeded to ban St. Johnsbury's coach Rich Alercio from its school and athletic grounds due to what BFA Athletic Director Dan Marlow referred to as inappropriate and disrespectful behavior. Further details of the incident were not shared, though Alercio was likely upset that when the game was suspended at 11:15 p.m. due to a lightning storm, BFA refused to end the game despite being behind 28-3 with 51 seconds remaining in the 3rd quarter. This forced St. Johnsbury to make the 150-mile roundtrip drive again just weeks later in order to secure the victory. More information on the incident can be found on the Burlington Free Press website.

Today's game was a much closer affair. BFA jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead in the 1st quarter and went into halftime with a 21-14 lead. BFA struck first again in the second half to extend their lead to 28-14, but St. Johnsbury would go on to score 22 unanswered points. Ahead by one score, the Hilltoppers came through with a key interception with 1:20 left in the game to seal the victory.

Other highlights of the week included Burlington remaining unbeaten (5-0) with a convincing 27-7 victory over CVU, Middlebury defeating Rutland 28-27 in overtime, and in a matchup of winless teams, Rice stormed to a 35-6 win over Essex.

Next week's Vermont Football Insider game of the week will again see BFA-St. Albans on the road as they take on the defending state champions from Hartford.

Results
Division 1
St. Johnsbury 36, BFA- St. Albans 28
Hartford 56, Brattleboro 33
Burlington 27, CVU 7
Middlebury 28, Rutland 27 (OT)
Mt. Mansfield 32, Colchester 19
Rice 35, Essex 6

Division 2
Burr & Burton 56, Spaulding 24
Milton 41, Mt. Abraham 6
Bellows Falls 50, Otter Valley 6
U-32 28, North Country 9

Division 3
Windsor 66, Missisquoi 32
Woodstock 42, Mill River 14

Non-divisional games
South Burlington 12, Mt. Anthony 7
Fair Haven 49, MSJ/Poultney 7
Lyndon 15, BFA-Fairfax 3
Granville (NY) 22, Springfield 14

Week 5 Power Rankings
1) St. Johnsbury (5-0)
2) Hartford (4-1)
3) BFA-St. Albans (4-1)
4) Burlington (5-0)
5) Burr & Burton (4-1)
6) Middlebury (3-2)
7) Mt. Mansfield (4-1)
8) Fair Haven (4-1)
9) Milton (5-0)
10) Bellows Falls (4-1)

QPR Standings
You can visit Green Mountain Gridiron for updated QPR standings from Kevin Commo.

Division Standings (by record against VT opponenets, not QPR)
Division 1
1) St. Johnsbury (5-0)
2) Burlington (5-0)
3) Hartford (4-1)
4) BFA-St. Albans (4-1)
5) Mt. Mansfield (4-1)
6) Middlebury (3-2)
7) Colchester (2-3)
8) CVU (2-3)
9) South Burlington (2-3)
10) Rutland (1-4)
11) Rice (1-4)
12) Essex (0-5)
13) Brattleboro (0-5)

Division 2
1) Milton (5-0)
2) Burr & Burton (4-1)
3) Bellows Falls (4-1)
4) Fair Haven (4-1)
5) U-32 (4-1)
6) Lyndon (3-2)
7) Mt. Anthony (2-3)
8) Mt. Abraham (1-4)
9) Spaulding (1-3)
10) North Country (0-5)
11) Otter Valley (0-5)

Division 3
1) Windsor (4-0)
2) Woodstock (4-0)
3) Mill River (3-2)
4) BFA-Fairfax (2-3)
5) MSJ/Poultney (1-4)
6) Springfield (0-4)
7) Missisquoi (0-4)